Those waiting for the housing market to cool before jumping in may be in for a long wait, according to Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation analyst Paul Fabri.
„ forcast demand for housing in the Kelowna to remain strong, Fabri said. „t may flatten out, but I don see anything indicating a downturn. And the market will likely run up again before the 2010 Olympics.ÿp>
And for buyers ready to take the real estate plunge, lifestyle and resort-oriented condo developments will be the hottest market in coming years.
Ueôe seen the nature of condos changing in terms of what people are looking for waterfront locations, amenities like gyms, pools and golf greens, said Fabri. xhere have been a lot more of these kinds of developments in Mhe past three years in Kelowna.ÿp>
He cited examples such as Discovery Point, Mission Shores and upcoming proposals for downtown highrises. The trend is evident in the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Boardô (OMREB) latest statistics. Year-to-date, the only number of residential units sold is only slightly higher than 2003 with a 2.2 per cent increase. Meanwhile, sales of recreational properties have boomed by 162 per cent. Fabri said the sales are being driven by affluent out-of-towners noticing what Kelowna has to offer.
Ue now have better airport access, the wine industry and ski hills, and soon UBC Okanagan, Fabri noted. - lot of buyers are baby boomers from Vancouver or Alberta and internationally who buy summer homes with plans to retire here.ÿp>
This market was forefront in developer Derek Tretheweyô mind as he planned several housing communities in the Okanagan, including the Outback near Vernon, the Lakes subdivision in Winfield and Abbot House townhomes on Kelownaô heritage street.
xhe timing is right. We`e experiencing the largest transfer of wealth in Canadaô history to baby boomers, he said. -lbertans have made lots of money and the Okanagan is their playground.ÿp>
Tretheweyô lakeside Cove property in Westbank sold 109 of the 150 available units during a one-day selection sale, resulting in a record sales day for the Okanagan. He described the development as dual as dual-purpose serving those who want to live year-round by the lake, and also those wanting a summer vacation homes and investment property.
xhere is only so much lakefront and prices continue to climb 15-20 percent a year, Trethewey said. åemand outstrips supply five-to-one.ÿp>
As a real estate agent, Gretchen Gebhard has experienced the buying frenzy first-hand.
¤eople everywhere have finally caught on to what a glorious place we live in, she said. òew home subdivisions in Black Mountain and Smith Creek have sold quickly and more townhome-style properties are needed.ÿp>
This matches CMHCô overview showing that single detached resaleô have leveled off as more sellers have come into the market and single detached starts are slightly down from last year. For the first year ever, construction of condo units in 2005 is expected to account for more housing starts than detached homes. Low interest rates, a strong Canadian dollar and 100 per cent financing options are bringing in a steady stream of investors and first time buyers.
òew buyers used to only look at single detached homes, said Fabri. òow, for affordability and lifestyle, they are considering townhomes, lofts and apartments. Builders are recognizing there is a market there, too.ÿp>
With the surge in building, Fabri said the main challenges facing Kelownaô real estate market are increasing material costs and a shortage of skilled labor.
Øoth these factors increase the price of housing, he said. Øut I can say how much the rise in prices is due to these factors and how much is demand.ÿp>
According to OMREB, the average price of a residential unit is up 18.8 per cent this year, from $236, 877 in 2003 to $281,395 so far in 2004. Fabri said he expects prices to continue trending up, though not as dramatically as in recent years. His market overview indicates single detached resaleô might average $285,000 to $290,000 by the end of 2005. Which, according to Gebhard, still translates into a sound investment for todayô homebuyer.
Xvery dime spent on Kelowna real estate in the past few years has been well spent. In the future I see stabilization and slow growth, but no decline, she said. „tô still a tangible and valuable asset.